Demand & capacity planning looks so simple, until you get into it. Then you find that every step of the calculations is filled with pitfalls and complexity.
Even the very first step of the calculations – measuring historic demand – is often done naively in other models, and the result is gross error when waiting lists and waiting times come out at the end. And when NHS planning is attempted in spreadsheets, the models are inevitably both limited in scope and error-prone.
In contrast, Gooroo Planner has been tried and trusted across the NHS for many years, and every step of the calculations has been carefully developed and documented. The waiting time calculations in particular required a multi-year PhD-level research project to simulate and understand the dynamics, which means you don’t have to, because Gooroo Planner explains it all visually and intuitively.
Getting the sums right isn’t easy. But it is essential. Only then can you have confidence in the results, and rely on the complex whole-hospital planning that an advanced demand & capacity model like Gooroo Planner delivers.
A long-waits forecast that was accurate down to the last patient? Yes, and two months running too. We'd be the first to admit there was a lot of luck in it. But you have to be shooting pretty straight to get that lucky...
Long-wait trajectories are easy to ask for, and surprisingly hard to calculate. But with a skilful model and a bit of luck, you could achieve precision planning for your trajectories. In this longer read we go deep into the detail.
If you plan capacity without allowing for variation, disaster will follow. Or will it?
In theory, the NHS has highly sophisticated processes for finance and activity planning. In practice they are rather less polished. So here are two changes that would transform planning for the better.